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[問 療程] 华泰证券:中设集团买入评级   [複製鏈接]

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华泰证券:中设集团买入评级
2017 年公司业绩超市场预期张家口服装厂,估值历史低位彰显投资价值
  公司 1 月 25 日公告 2017 年业绩预告, 17 年公司预计实现归母净利润2.73-3.15 亿元,同比增长 30%-50%,中值 40%符合我们的预期,但超出市场一致预期。我们认为根据公司去年以及今年新签订单情况,公司在18-19 年收入继续实现快速增长可能性大,而行业整合提速有望进一步助公司提升市占率,公司当前省外业务已进入属地化阶段,未来勘察设计主业毛利率亦有望持续提升。此前由于单一最大股东中科汇通公告拟减持全部股份,公司股价下跌,对应 2017 年 PE 已跌至上市以来的最低水平,我们看好公司未来高成长性,估值底部投资价值凸显,维持“买入”评级。
  17/18 年订单继续较高增长可能性大定做制服,未来 2-3 年收入高增长基础牢固
  据公司公告,公司上半年新签设计咨询类订单 20.3 亿元,同比增长 62%,我们预计公司全年新签设计咨询订单接近 50 亿元,增速接近 60%, 预计公司 17 年底在手设计咨询订单超过 40 亿元。公司 16 年营收 20 亿元,假设 17-19 年平均营收增速 40%,则需订单储备 83 亿元,即在 18-19 年仅需新签订单 43 亿元,平均每年所需新签订单量仅为 17 年预测新签订单的43%广州工服定制。根据基建设计订单在每个五年计划中的释放节奏,我们预计公司 18年新签订单仍能保持较高增长。勘察设计订单的转化周期一般在 1-2.5 年之间,大额在手订单有望对公司未来 2-3 年的收入高增长奠定坚实基础。业务属地化有望提升毛利率广州西服订做,外延并购大概率提速
  公司 17 年前三季度毛利率 36.52%,环比 H1 提升 0.63pct,毛利率提升趋
  势进入 2017 年后逐渐显现。我们认为公司主业毛利率提升受益于省外业务达到属地化临界点。我们预计 17 年公司在多于 5 个省份的订单额超过 1亿元,基本达到区域设计院的平均水平,未来属地化逐步成熟有望持续提升主业毛利率。外延并购是设计行业公司突破增长天花板的重要途径防砸鞋定制, 17年由于行业并购整体市盈率升高http://www.ayymdt.com/rydw/ ,公司并购步伐有所放缓,我们认为并购能够最大化公司资质与品牌优势劳保鞋制作厂家,未来大概率仍将是公司的重要战略之一,在贡献额外业绩增量的同时不断提升公司市占率。
  估值已处于历史低位, 投资价值凸显冬季工作服款式, 维持“买入”评级
  17 年 12 月初中科汇通公告计划减持 5.34%股份,公司股价随之下滑。根据中科汇通在 17 年二级市场的频繁减持计划及减持方式百色工装定制,我们预计其减持与公司基本面无关,且大概率通过协议转让及大宗交易方式减持,其首次减持 77 万股由董事长承接,我们认为此次减持有望成为公司改善股权及治理结构的契机。当前公司 2017 年 Wind 一致预期 PE19 倍, 2018 年一致预期 PE 不足 15 倍,处于上市以来的最低区间定制衬衫哪家好,投资价值凸显。 我们预计公司 17-19 年 EPS1.45/2.04/2.55 元, 结合可比公司情况, 基于估值切换,认可给予 18 年 20-25 倍 PE,目标价 40.8-51.0 元,维持“买入”评级。
  风险提示: 订单转化速度下降超预期; 新签订单增速下滑超预期。













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